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基于灰色GM(1,1)的農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械化水平預(yù)測(cè)模
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Model of Agricultural Mechanization Level in China Based on GM(1,1)
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    摘要:

    根據(jù)1986~2005年我國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械化綜合水平統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù),,并對(duì)由于我國(guó)耕地面積統(tǒng)計(jì)滯后使得在機(jī)耕水平計(jì)算中存在誤差進(jìn)行了合理分析和修正,,結(jié)合數(shù)據(jù)平滑處理,建立了基于灰色GM(1,1)的我國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械化綜合水平預(yù)測(cè)模型。通過殘差檢驗(yàn)和后驗(yàn)差檢驗(yàn)方法對(duì)預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果進(jìn)行了檢驗(yàn),,模型擬合精度較好,。采用模型對(duì)2006年我國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械化綜合水平值進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),結(jié)果表現(xiàn)出較高的預(yù)測(cè)精度,,進(jìn)一步驗(yàn)證了所建模型的可行性。運(yùn)用該模型對(duì)我國(guó)2007~2020年間農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械化綜合水平進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),,結(jié)果表明到2020年我國(guó)綜合機(jī)械化水平將達(dá)到68%左右,。通過定性分析及與其他預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果比較,模型表現(xiàn)出較好的預(yù)測(cè)能力,。

    Abstract:

    A GM(1, 1) model for quantificational predicting the mechanization level in China was established by integrated gray predicting theory with datum smoothness based on statistical data from the year 1986 to 2005. The GM(1, 1) model fitted well by verified. And prediction precision is available by predict the mechanization level of 2006. A prediction of the mechanization levels from the year 2007 to 2020 was also conducted by the GM(1, 1) model. The result showed that the integrated level of mechanically would reach to 68 percent in the year of 2020. And the model showed better prediction compared with qualitative analysis and other results of prediction. 

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張睿,高煥文.基于灰色GM(1,1)的農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械化水平預(yù)測(cè)模[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械學(xué)報(bào),2009,40(2):91-95. Model of Agricultural Mechanization Level in China Based on GM(1,1)[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2009,40(2):91-95.

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