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基于多目標(biāo)規(guī)劃模型的黑河中游綠洲用水結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化配置
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國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金面上項(xiàng)目(41871199)


Waterconsumption Structure Optimization in Oasis of Middle Reaches of Heihe River Basin Based on Multiobjective Optimization Model
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    摘要:

    針對(duì)水資源優(yōu)化配置過程中存在的缺水風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、經(jīng)濟(jì)效益、配水公平性等問題,,構(gòu)建了確定性多目標(biāo)規(guī)劃模型,,該模型能夠兼顧配水風(fēng)險(xiǎn),、效益及公平性,,實(shí)現(xiàn)多目標(biāo)之間的協(xié)調(diào),,且能夠反映水資源配置系統(tǒng)中存在的不確定性。在確定性多目標(biāo)規(guī)劃的基礎(chǔ)上,,構(gòu)建了不確定條件下基于模糊Me測(cè)度的多目標(biāo)規(guī)劃模型。另外,,根據(jù)不同的樂觀-悲觀因子,,將Me測(cè)度轉(zhuǎn)換為必要性測(cè)度、可信性測(cè)度和可能性測(cè)度,。將所構(gòu)建的兩個(gè)模型應(yīng)用于甘州區(qū),、臨澤縣和高臺(tái)縣的農(nóng)業(yè)、工業(yè),、生活,、生態(tài)部門的配水中,結(jié)果表明,,兩個(gè)模型均適用于該地區(qū)的水資源配置,,不確定性條件下基于Me測(cè)度的多目標(biāo)規(guī)劃模型相較于確定性模型具有更高的魯棒性。必要性測(cè)度約束的配水量最小,,可信性測(cè)度約束的配水量居中,,可能性測(cè)度約束的配水量最大。結(jié)構(gòu)性缺水風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與配水量成反比,,經(jīng)濟(jì)效益與配水量成正比,,在當(dāng)前可利用水量條件下,GINI系數(shù)與配水量成正比。因此,,必要性測(cè)度更適用于最小化目標(biāo)值的情況,,可能性測(cè)度更適合于最大化目標(biāo)值的情況,可信性測(cè)度的結(jié)果則是兩者的折衷,。在3種置信條件約束下,,配水量、結(jié)構(gòu)性缺水風(fēng)險(xiǎn),、經(jīng)濟(jì)效益隨著測(cè)度水平的增加而減少,,GINI系數(shù)隨著測(cè)度水平的增加而增加。 因此,,決策者可以基于多目標(biāo)規(guī)劃方法,,通過選擇合適的樂觀-悲觀因子和測(cè)度水平優(yōu)選最佳配水方案和目標(biāo)值。

    Abstract:

    The deterministic multiple objective optimization model was constructed based on the characters, including water shortage risk, economic benefit and fairness, existed in water resources management system. Besides, the Me measure multiple objective optimization model was proposed due to the uncertainties of water resources system. Moreover, the Me measure can be transformed into necessary measure, possibility measure and credibility measure according to different pessimisticoptimistic parameters. The two models were applied to the real case of interwater users water allocation of Ganzhou District, Linze County and Gaotai County. The results showed that the Me measure multiple objective optimization model was more practical for water resources management and had more robustness and provided more water allocation alternatives compared with the deterministic multiple objective optimization model. The results indicated that the total water allocation form high to low was possibility measure, credibility measure, and necessary measure. Besides, the structural water shortage risk had negative relationship with allocated water resources, while economic benefit and GINI were positively affected by allocated water resources. Therefore, the necessary measure had more advantages in minimizing the objectives, and the possibility measure was more applicable for maximizing the objectives, and the credibility measure had the comprehensive results. What’s more, the total water allocation, structural water shortage risk and economic benefit was lessened with the increase of measure levels, while the GINI coefficient was increased with the increase of measure levels. Therefore, the decision makers can choose best water allocation schemes with consideration of reasonable pessimisticoptimistic parameter and measure levels.

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王友芝,郭萍.基于多目標(biāo)規(guī)劃模型的黑河中游綠洲用水結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化配置[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械學(xué)報(bào),2020,51(2):299-307. WANG Youzhi, GUO Ping. Waterconsumption Structure Optimization in Oasis of Middle Reaches of Heihe River Basin Based on Multiobjective Optimization Model[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2020,51(2):299-307.

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  • 收稿日期:2019-06-27
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2020-02-10
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