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馬尾松毛蟲害等級的Fisher判別分析
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國家自然科學基金資助項目(30871965)和福州大學科研啟動基金資助項目(510049)


Fisher Discriminant Analysis of Dendrolimus punctatus Walker Pest Levels
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    摘要:

    馬尾松毛蟲是我國森林最具危害性的害蟲之一,開展該蟲害的遙感預(yù)測研究有助于全面,、及時地發(fā)現(xiàn)可能發(fā)生蟲害的區(qū)域,為有效采取森防檢疫措施,,降低蟲害造成的直接,、間接損失提供技術(shù)支持。以福建省為研究區(qū),,于2012年2—5月份依次開展了三明市,、將樂縣、沙縣,、南平市,、華安縣、云霄縣,、南安市,、安溪縣、莆田市,、長汀縣,、建陽市、寧德市及福清市等13個監(jiān)測站的馬尾松毛蟲越冬代調(diào)查,,調(diào)查指標包括GPS坐標,、松林冠層光譜、氣候,、地形,、林分、蟲源,、人文環(huán)境等,。對上述因子進行分析與提取,經(jīng)相關(guān)分析得到13個可有效預(yù)測馬尾松毛蟲害等級的子因子,;利用Fisher判別分析,,建立無危害,、輕度危害、中度危害,、重度危害等4個蟲害等級的判別函數(shù),,建模組樣本自〖JP2〗檢結(jié)果顯示4個等級的判別精度分別為71.0%、84.9%,、87.2%,、100%,總判別精度為80.8%,,驗證組樣本檢驗結(jié)果顯示判別精度為73.00%,,預(yù)測準確率為75.99%,表明利用Fisher判別分析預(yù)測馬尾松毛蟲害等級具有較好的可行性,。

    Abstract:

    The Dendrolimus punctatus Walker is the most serious forest defoliator in China. The study of pest remote sensing prediction is helpful to the comprehensive and timely identification of possible damage regions, and can provide the technical support for the direct and indirect losses reduction. Taking Fujian Province as the study area, the Dendrolimus punctatus Walker overwintering generation was investigated in 13 monitoring stations, Sanming City, Jiangle County, Shaxian County, Nanping City, Huaan County, Yunxiao County, Nan’an City, Anxi County, Putian City, Changting County, Jianyang City, Ningde City, and Fuqing City, successively from February to May 2012. The investigation indices contained GPS coordinates, pine forests canopy spectrum, climate, terrain, stand, pest source, human environment and so on. After the analysis and extraction of these factors above, the sub-factors used to predict the Dendrolimus punctatus Walker pest levels were obtained with correlation analysis. With the help of Fisher discriminant analysis, the discriminant functions of 4 pest levels, non-damage, mild damage, moderate damage and severe damage, were constructed, and the self-test result with samples of modeling group showed that the discriminant accuracies were 71.0%, 84.9%, 87.2%, 100% respectively, with total discriminant accuracy of 80.8%. The test result with samples of validation group showed that the discriminant accuracy and accurate rate were 73.00% and 75.99% respectively, which indicated that there was good feasibility to use Fisher discriminant analysis to predict the Dendrolimus punctatus Walker pest levels. 

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許章華,李聰慧,劉健,余坤勇,龔從宏,唐夢雅.馬尾松毛蟲害等級的Fisher判別分析[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機械學報,2014,45(6):275-283. Xu Zhanghua, Li Conghui, Liu Jian, Yu Kunyong, Gong Conghong, Tang Mengya. Fisher Discriminant Analysis of Dendrolimus punctatus Walker Pest Levels[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2014,45(6):275-283.

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  • 收稿日期:2013-08-29
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2014-06-10
  • 出版日期: 2014-06-10
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