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基于時間序列HJ-1 A/B衛(wèi)星數(shù)據(jù)的冬小麥成熟期預測
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國家自然科學基金項目(41371326)


Prediction of Maturity Data for Winter Wheat Based on Time Series of HJ-1 A/B CCD Images
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    摘要:

    準確、及時地掌握大區(qū)域尺度的冬小麥成熟期信息能夠為農(nóng)業(yè)機械調(diào)度,、優(yōu)化農(nóng)作物收割順序提供重要的參考依據(jù),。以華北平原中部冬小麥為研究對象,首先使用2013年研究區(qū)冬小麥生育期內(nèi)HJ-1 A/B CCD時間序列影像,,通過線性插值構(gòu)建像元尺度上逐日的時間序列NDVI,,隨后采用上包絡線S-G濾波方法重構(gòu)時間序列NDVI,,通過動態(tài)閾值法逐像元提取冬小麥抽穗期;然后以抽穗至成熟期的有效積溫模型為判別依據(jù),,利用歐洲中期天氣預報中心(ECMWF)提供的日平均氣溫預報數(shù)據(jù),,實現(xiàn)未來10d冬小麥成熟期的動態(tài)預測;最后采用農(nóng)業(yè)氣象站點的成熟期觀測值對預測結(jié)果進行驗證,,重點對比分析了從不同成熟期預報起始時間點獲得的冬小麥成熟期精度,,以確定最優(yōu)的預報起始時間點。結(jié)果表明:當預報時效小于等于10d時,,成熟期預測精度趨于穩(wěn)定,,因此,綜合考慮確定提前10天對預測冬小麥成熟期在時效和精度上最優(yōu),,平均誤差為3d,。該方法為地塊尺度的區(qū)域農(nóng)作物成熟期預測提供了可參考的技術(shù)途徑。

    Abstract:

    Accurately and timely regional maturity date of winter wheat provides an important information and reference for commanding farm machinery and optimizing the crop harvesting order. This study took main winter wheat planting area of the North China Plain as a case study. Firstly, the daily NDVI time series have been obtained through linear interpolation using time series of HJ-1 A/B CCD images from the winter wheat’s booting to filling stages, the upper envelope Savitzky-Golay (S-G) filtered method was used to reconstruct the time series of NDVI, and then the heading stage was extracted from the NDVI profile using dynamic threshold method. Then, the resulting heading date and the effective accumulated temperature model of heading-maturity stage, combining with the average daily temperature forecast data from European Centre for medium range weather forecasts (ECMWF) was used to conduct realtime dynamic prediction maturity date of winter wheat. Finally, the prediction results were validated by observed maturity date in agricultural meteorological stations, and we test the optimal starting time for maturity date through comparing four schemes with different prediction starting date. The results showed the high accuracy of prediction maturity date when we conducted the prediction ahead of 10 d. The RMSE of predicted maturity date was about 3 d. These results also showed that predicting winter wheat maturity date at the 30 m resolution was promising and can be used for operational crop maturity monitoring and forecasting in the near future.

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黃健熙,牛文豪,馬鴻元,黃然,朱德海.基于時間序列HJ-1 A/B衛(wèi)星數(shù)據(jù)的冬小麥成熟期預測[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機械學報,2016,47(11):278-284. Huang Jianxi, Niu Wenhao, Ma Hongyuan, Huang Ran, Zhu Dehai. Prediction of Maturity Data for Winter Wheat Based on Time Series of HJ-1 A/B CCD Images[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2016,47(11):278-284.

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  • 收稿日期:2016-03-15
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2016-11-10
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