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河北省縣域農田畜禽承載量與畜禽養(yǎng)殖量時空耦合
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國家重點研發(fā)計劃項目(2016YFD0800900)


Spatio-temporal Coupling between Livestock Carrying Capacity of Farmland and Livestock Breeding at County Level in Hebei Province
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    摘要:

    通過農作物種植面積計算農田畜禽承載量,并利用各類畜禽產排污系數(shù)估算區(qū)域畜禽理論養(yǎng)殖量,,分析1994,、2003,、2013年河北省縣域農田畜禽承載量與畜禽實際養(yǎng)殖量的變化態(tài)勢及其耦合關系,。研究表明:農作物播種面積呈現(xiàn)小幅波動態(tài)勢,,總量增加了83663hm2,,以氮元素計的畜禽承載能力提高了108.7萬頭(豬當量);畜禽實際養(yǎng)殖量先增后減,,總量增加了1102萬頭(豬當量),。在僅考慮農作物種植面積消納畜禽糞便的情境下,1994—2003年河北省有69個縣市屬于畜禽超載狀態(tài),,有94.24%的縣市生態(tài)持續(xù)衰退,;2003—2013年農作物畜禽承載狀況改善明顯,超載的縣市有26個,,只占全省的18.7%,。基于Ward聚類分析方法,,將1994—2013年畜禽養(yǎng)殖量與農作物播種面積變化的耦合類型特征劃分為9大區(qū),,提出了不同調控對策,。

    Abstract:

    Actual livestock and poultry breeding capacity was calculated by using area under crops and amount of breeding livestock based on GIS technology and modulation, the changes and spatio-temporal coupling relationship of the livestock and poultry breeding capacity and its volume in Hebei Province in 1994, 2003 and 2013 were analyzed by using crops planting area to calculate the capacity and using polluting coefficient to calculate the volume. The research result revealed that the acreage of crops was increased to 83663hm2, and the areas were mainly concentrated in Chengde and south central plain. The livestock and poultry breeding capacity was increased to 1.087 million in counting of pigs, and the areas were mainly concentrated in Shijiazhuang, Tangshan, Zhangjiakou and other urban areas. The livestock and poultry breeding volume showed a trend of firstly increase and then decrease, which was increased by 11.02 million in counting of pigs. Considering the crops planting area as the only factor absorbing feces, following results could be deduced: there were 69 counties which were overloaded in Hebei Province between 1994 and 2003;94.24% of the counties in Hebei Province were under ecological sustainable redline;overloaded situation was improved between 2003 and 2013, total number of overloaded counties was decreased to 26, which accounted about 18.7% of all counties in Hebei Province, except for Chengde and Tangshan, other areas of livestock and poultry over loaded counties were significantly reduced. Using Ward cluster analysis, coupling features were classified into nine regional types by its volume and changes of crops planting area in Hebei Province from 1994 to 2013. The research results provided decision support for development of livestock and poultry breeding industry and improvement on Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei eco-environment.

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孫超,劉玉,潘瑜春.河北省縣域農田畜禽承載量與畜禽養(yǎng)殖量時空耦合[J].農業(yè)機械學報,2017,48(3):173-180,187. SUN Chao, LIU Yu, PAN Yuchun. Spatio-temporal Coupling between Livestock Carrying Capacity of Farmland and Livestock Breeding at County Level in Hebei Province[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2017,48(3):173-180,187.

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  • 收稿日期:2016-06-27
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2017-03-10
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