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基于隨機森林算法的參考作物蒸發(fā)蒸騰量模擬計算
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國家重點基礎(chǔ)研究發(fā)展計劃(973計劃)項目(2015CB452703)和國家自然科學基金項目(41171187,、31100294)


Simulation of Reference Evapotranspiration Based on Random Forest Method
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    摘要:

    選取西南喀斯特地區(qū)4個氣象站點(都安,、河池,、百色和融安)5a(2008—2012年)的逐日氣象數(shù)據(jù),包括日最高氣溫Tmax,、日最低氣溫Tmin、相對濕度RH,、日照時數(shù)n和風速u2這5個氣象因子的不同組合作為輸入,,并以FAO 56 Penman-Monteith法(FAO P-M)的計算結(jié)果作為標準值,建立基于隨機森林(Random forest, RF)算法和基因表達式編程(Gene expression programming, GEP)算法的ET0模型,,并將模擬結(jié)果與傳統(tǒng)Hargreaves模型的計算結(jié)果進行比較,。結(jié)果表明,,不同氣象因子組合下建立的RF模型均能較好地反映氣象因子與ET0之間的非線性關(guān)系。隨著氣象因子的增加,,RF模型模擬的精度隨之提高,。在僅有氣溫數(shù)據(jù)時,RF模型仍具有足夠的精度(R2為0.875,,RMSE為0.546mm/d),,與傳統(tǒng)Hargreaves模型相比R2平均增加了1.98%, RMSE平均減小了22.88%,,因此在僅有氣溫數(shù)據(jù)時可用RF模型代替Hargreaves模型,。RF算法對氣象因子的重要性評估表明,在該區(qū)域?qū)T0最重要的氣象因子依次為Tmax,、n,、Tmin、Ra,、RH和u2,。相同氣象因子輸入下,RF模型精度高于GEP模型,。

    Abstract:

    Accurate estimation of reference evapotranspiration (ET0) is very important in hydrological cycle research, and it is also essential in agricultural water management and allocation. Using less meteorological parameters to estimate ET0 is necessary in areas with limited data. The ability of random forest (RF) and gene expression programming (GEP) algorithm in modeling ET0 was investigated and compared by using fewer meteorological parameters collected from four weather stations of Duan, Hechi, Baise and Rong’an, in karst region of southwest China, over a fiveyear period (2008—2012). Daily climatic data of the four stations, including maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin),,sunshine duration (n), relative humidity (RH) and wind speed (u2) were employed to model ET0 by using FAO 56 Penman-Monteith equation as the reference, and their performances were evaluated using determination coefficient (R2) and root mean square error (RMSE). From the statistical results, the derived RF-based (R2 was ranged from 0.809 to 0.991, and RMSE was ranged from 0.158mm/d to 0.678mm/d) and GEP-based (R2 was in range of 0.830~0.977, and RMSE was in range of 0.225~0.645mm/d) ET0 models were successfully applied to model ET0 with different input combinations. When only the temperature data can be used, the RF models produced satisfactory results (R2=0.875,RMSE=0.546mm/d), which can be used as an alternative to the conventional Hargreaves model. The relative importance of meteorological variables for ET0 can be assessed by RF method, the order of the relative importance of meteorological variables was: Tmax, n, Tmin, Ra, RH and u2. In most cases, the RF models were found to perform better than the GEP models. The results were expected to be useful to guide rehabilitation strategies and agricultural water management in karst region of Southwest China.

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王升,付智勇,陳洪松,丁亞麗,吳麗萍,王克林.基于隨機森林算法的參考作物蒸發(fā)蒸騰量模擬計算[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機械學報,2017,48(3):302-309. WANG Sheng, FU Zhiyong, CHEN Hongsong, DING Yali, WU Liping, WANG Kelin. Simulation of Reference Evapotranspiration Based on Random Forest Method[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2017,48(3):302-309.

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  • 收稿日期:2016-07-18
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2017-03-10
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