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基于Blaney-Criddle方法估算潛在蒸散量的評(píng)價(jià)與校準(zhǔn)
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國(guó)家高技術(shù)研究發(fā)展計(jì)劃(863計(jì)劃)項(xiàng)目(2013AA102904)和高等學(xué)校學(xué)科創(chuàng)新引智計(jì)劃(111計(jì)劃)項(xiàng)目(B12007)


Evaluation and Calibration of Blaney-Criddle Method for Estimating Potential Evapotranspiration
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    摘要:

    為提高Blaney-Criddle (BC)方法在陜西關(guān)中地區(qū)的估算精度,,以Penman方法(PE)為標(biāo)準(zhǔn),,利用1960—1999年陜西關(guān)中地區(qū)6個(gè)站點(diǎn)逐日資料對(duì)BC方法進(jìn)行適用性評(píng)價(jià)和參數(shù)修正,并使用2000—2015年資料對(duì)修正的BC方法進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證,,得到基于溫度的潛在蒸散量估算方法(CBC方法),。結(jié)果表明:BC方法計(jì)算的月均ETp(潛在蒸散量)在溫度較低時(shí)低估,,在溫度較高時(shí)高估。通過(guò)改進(jìn)后,,CBC與PE方法計(jì)算的月均ETp回歸曲線的斜率更接近于1(改進(jìn)前0.685,,改進(jìn)后0.9997)。與PE方法的計(jì)算結(jié)果相比,,改進(jìn)后BC(CBC)計(jì)算月均ETp相對(duì)誤差由-18.022%~ 16.269%變?yōu)?.290%~3.630%,,均方根誤差由0.529~0.921mm/d降為0.214~0.283mm/d;平均偏差由-0.063~0.601mm/d變?yōu)?0.001121~0.000737mm/d,。修正前后BC方法計(jì)算月均ETp值與PE方法計(jì)算值擬合的決定系數(shù)由0.942提高到0.966,。通過(guò)年累計(jì)ETp和年內(nèi)月累計(jì)ETp的驗(yàn)證,CBC與PE計(jì)算的ETp變化趨勢(shì)和數(shù)值更為接近,。綜合分析表明,,CBC方法能夠顯著提高潛在蒸散量的計(jì)算精度(ETp),可以應(yīng)用于陜西關(guān)中地區(qū)ETp的計(jì)算,。

    Abstract:

    The objective was to improve the estimation accuracy of the Blaney-Criddle (BC) method to estimate potential evapotranspiration (ETp) in Guanzhong region of Shaanxi Province, and search for some theoretical basis for the choice of formulas. The Penman (PE) method is widely used all over the world to estimate ETp since it can provide the satisfactory estimations, but it also requires a lot of climatic variables and complicated nonlinear processes in computing ETp. Developing a simple and appropriate method with limited data is urgent. Accordingly, the Blaney-Criddle method was modified. The calibration process used the daily climatic data from 1960 to 1999 and the verification process used the daily climatic data from 2000 to 2015. The results showed that the BC method underestimated the values of monthly ETp when the temperature was low and the BC method overestimated the values of monthly ETp when the temperature was high. By modifying the original BC method, the slope of regression curve of ETp values between the PE method and modified BC method became 0.9997 from 0.685. Moreover, the trend of ETp estimated by the modified BC method was more similar to that estimated by PE method. Compared with the PE method estimation results, the relative error of the ETp values estimated by modified BC method became 1.290%~3.630% from -18.022%~16.269%; the root mean square error of the ETp values decreased from 0.529~0.921mm/d to 0.214~0.283mm/d; the average deviation value became -0.001121~0.000737mm/d from -0.063~0.601mm/d; and the fitting decision coefficient increased from 0.942 to 0.966. It was found that the values of ETp estimated by the modified BC method agreed better with that estimated by the PE method by comparing the year and monthly ETp values. Therefore, the modified BC method can significantly improve the estimation accuracy of the ETp values and it is applicable in Guanzhong region of Shaanxi Province in China.

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馮浩,劉匣,褚曉升,丁奠元,余坤,李毅.基于Blaney-Criddle方法估算潛在蒸散量的評(píng)價(jià)與校準(zhǔn)[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械學(xué)報(bào),2017,48(6):159-167. FENG Hao, LIU Xia, CHU Xiaosheng, DING Dianyuan, YU Kun, LI Yi. Evaluation and Calibration of Blaney-Criddle Method for Estimating Potential Evapotranspiration[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2017,48(6):159-167.

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  • 收稿日期:2016-10-03
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2017-01-22
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