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中國棉花地膜覆蓋產(chǎn)量效應(yīng)的Meta分析
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國家社會科學(xué)基金項目(15XJY010)和陜西省國土資源廳項目(K332021305,、K332021306)


Meta-analysis of Effect of Plastic Film Mulching on Cotton Yield in China
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    摘要:

    為定量分析近30a地膜覆蓋對棉花的增產(chǎn)效應(yīng),,整合已發(fā)表的相關(guān)田間試驗數(shù)據(jù),利用Meta分析方法系統(tǒng)分析地膜覆蓋對棉花的產(chǎn)量效應(yīng)及影響因素,。具體過程包括:異質(zhì)性檢驗,、綜合效應(yīng)量計算,、發(fā)表偏倚檢驗、敏感性分析,、累積Meta分析和亞組分析,。結(jié)果表明,所收集的數(shù)據(jù)不存在發(fā)表偏倚和極端值,,分析結(jié)果可信度較高,。與不覆蓋相比,覆蓋地膜的棉花產(chǎn)量平均提高17.2%,。自1986年以來,,覆蓋地膜的棉花累積平均增產(chǎn)率為1.2%~18.0%。在平作,、年均氣溫小于12℃或年降水量小于500mm的地區(qū)及采用厚度0.008mm地膜覆蓋時,地膜覆蓋條件下棉花的增產(chǎn)率較高,,分別為17.8%,、21.5%、19.1%和17.3%,;3個區(qū)域的覆膜增產(chǎn)率由大到小表現(xiàn)為:西北棉區(qū)(24.5%),、黃河流域棉區(qū)(16.5%)、長江流域棉區(qū)(10.5%);近年來,,覆蓋地膜仍可在一定程度上提高棉花產(chǎn)量,,但其增產(chǎn)率已呈下降趨勢,應(yīng)采取必要的應(yīng)對措施,。

    Abstract:

    Plastic film mulching, known as the “white revolution”, has been widely used in cotton cultivation in China, since it makes the cotton planting area expanded from the south toward the north and from the east toward the west. However, it is unclear about if and how the yield increasing effect of plastic film mulching is influenced by different planting patterns, climatic factors, film thicknesses, regions and experimental durations in China. To solve these questions, a total of 29 papers containing 48 groups of data were selected on the subject of cotton yield and plastic film mulching from the published papers before 15th November, 2016 and analyzed by metaanalysis. The main steps included heterogeneity test, comprehensive effect size calculation, publication bias test, sensitivity analysis, cumulative metaanalysis and influence factor analysis. Results showed that there were no publication bias and no extreme value among the collected data, thus the analysis results were highly credible. Plastic film mulching averagely increased cotton yield by 17.2% compared with no mulching. The cumulatively average yield of cotton mulched with plastic film was increased by 1.2%~18.0% since 1986. Under flat planting, in regions where annual mean temperature was lower than 12℃ or annual precipitation was less than 500mm, and using 0.008mm plastic film, the yield increasing rate under plastic film mulching was higher, which was 17.8%, 21.5%, 19.1% and 17.3%, respectively. The yield increasing effect with plastic film mulching was the highest in the northwest region with a mean value of 24.5%, followed by the Yellow River Basin with a mean value of 16.5%, then by the Yangtze River Basin with a mean value of 10.5%. In recent years, plastic film mulching could improve cotton yield to a certain extent, but its yield increasing rate was declined, and necessary measures needed to be taken. This research would provide valuable information for the application of plastic film mulching and further increase the yield of cotton in China.

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李昊,李世平,南靈,李河,郭清卉.中國棉花地膜覆蓋產(chǎn)量效應(yīng)的Meta分析[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機械學(xué)報,2017,48(7):228-235. LI Hao, LI Shiping, NAN Ling, LI He, GUO Qinghui. Meta-analysis of Effect of Plastic Film Mulching on Cotton Yield in China[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2017,48(7):228-235.

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  • 收稿日期:2016-12-06
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2017-07-10
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