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Since the mid-20th century, the climatic tendency of warming and drying had been shown distinctly in the mid-latitude zone of the North Hemisphere. It was of a series of impacts on the water resources system, especially in the semi-arid regions. In 1990s, the agricultural structure of Naoli River Basin, which was located in the hinterland of Sanjiang Plain, had been greatly adjusted with large amount of dry land changed into paddy field with global climate change and intensive activities of human beings. The dynamic change of cultivated land was discussed by using the future land use simulation model to simulate the distribution of cultivated land. All the above analysis was done by using the remote sensing image data, the DEM data and socioeconomic statistics data as fundamental data resources. Results showed that the growth rate of cultivated land was decreased gradually from 1990 to 2014, and different time periods showed different changing characteristics. During the period from 1990 to 2002, the area of paddy field was increased dramatically, while that of the dry land was increased slightly, from 2002 to 2014, the growth rate of paddy field area showed significantly decreased characteristics and the total area of dry land was decreased in a certain degree. The spatial pattern showed that the dry land was moving along the northeast-southwest axis in 1990, 2002 and 2014. The spindle rotates in a clockwise direction, and showed stable spatial distribution characteristics. Although the distribution tended to be more discredited, the spatial distribution was decreasing. The paddy field was along the northeast-southwest axis, and from 1990 to 2002, the spindle rotates counterclockwise and the rotated clockwise to 45.31°in 2014, and the paddy field also showed the characteristics of discrete distribution, but the polarization characteristic tended to be weakened. By comparing different spatial resolution with simulated distribution of cultivated land by using the future land use simulation model. And the determined optimal resolution was 200m and the optimal simulation time was 2038. The simulation results which was simulated by the MESSAGE mode showed that the dry land area would be decreased for the first stage and then increased for the second stage in the future, and the paddy field area would maintain the rising trend. The distribution of paddy fields would be more concentrated, and the main axis would rotate along the clockwise direction, the polarization characteristic was obvious, the paddy field gravity center displacement was not obvious. The AIM mode was also used to simulate the distribution of cultivated land, and results showed that the dry land was increased slowly, and the paddy field was decreased which maintained the trend of fluctuation, the influence of climate fluctuation on paddy field was significantly higher than that of dry land, and the dry land spatial pattern changed slowly, and the comprehensive polarization characteristics of paddy field were more prominent. These research results can be used as references and consultancies for the cultivated land management in the Naoli River Basin and Sanjiang Plain.