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基于粒子濾波和多變量權(quán)重的冬小麥估產(chǎn)研究
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國家自然科學基金項目(41371390)


Winter Wheat Yield Estimation Based on Particle Filter Algorithm and Weights of Multi-variables
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    摘要:

    為了構(gòu)建能夠反映作物長勢的綜合性指標以及準確估測作物產(chǎn)量,,采用粒子濾波算法同化CERES-Wheat模型模擬和基于Landsat數(shù)據(jù)反演的葉面積指數(shù)(Leaf area index,,LAI)、地上生物量和0~20cm土壤含水率,,獲取冬小麥主要生育期以天為尺度的變量同化值,,分析不同生育時期的LAI,、地上生物量和土壤含水率同化值與實測單產(chǎn)的相關(guān)性,并應(yīng)用熵值的組合預測方法確定不同狀態(tài)變量影響籽粒產(chǎn)量的權(quán)重,,進而生成綜合性指數(shù),,并分析其與實測單產(chǎn)的相關(guān)性。結(jié)果表明,,LAI,、地上生物量和土壤含水率同化值和田間實測值間的均方根誤差(Root mean square error,RMSE)以及平均相對誤差(Mean relative error,,MRE)均低于這些變量模擬值和實測值間的RMSE和MRE,,說明數(shù)據(jù)同化方法提高了時間序列LAI、地上生物量和土壤含水率的模擬精度,?;诓煌瑺顟B(tài)變量的權(quán)重生成的綜合性指數(shù)與實測單產(chǎn)間的相關(guān)性大于單個變量與實測單產(chǎn)間的相關(guān)性;基于綜合性指數(shù)構(gòu)建小麥單產(chǎn)估測模型,,其估產(chǎn)精度(R2=0.78,,RMSE為330kg/hm2)分別比基于LAI、地上生物量和土壤含水率建立模型的估產(chǎn)精度顯著提高,,表明構(gòu)建的綜合性指數(shù)充分結(jié)合了不同變量在作物估產(chǎn)方面的優(yōu)勢,,可用于高精度的冬小麥單產(chǎn)估測。

    Abstract:

    To establish a comprehensive index for monitoring the crop growth and estimating the crop yields accurately, the leaf area index (LAI), aboveground biomass and soil moisture (0~20cm) simulated by the CERES-Wheat model were assimilated with the state variables retrieved from Landsat data using the particle filter algorithm, for obtaining daily assimilated LAI, aboveground biomass and soil moisture values. Then linear regression analyses were performed to examine the relationships between the assimilated LAI, aboveground biomass or soil moisture and field-measured yields respectively, which were combined with the combination forecasting of entropy method, for determining the weights of different variables at the main growth stages of winter wheat. The comprehensive index was established based on the weights of variables, and the linear correlations between comprehensive index and measured yields were used for establishing wheat yield estimation model. The results showed that the root mean square errors (RMSEs) and mean relative errors (MREs) between the assimilated state variables and the field-measured ones were lower than the RMSEs and MREs between the simulations and the field-measurements, respectively. Thus the accuracies of the assimilated LAI, aboveground biomass and soil moisture time series were improved through the assimilation process. In addition, the correlation coefficients between the comprehensive index and the yields were higher than those between the individual variables and the yields at each wheat growth stage. And the accuracy of the yield estimation model established based on the comprehensive index (R2 was 0.78 and RMSE was 330kg/hm2) was significantly higher than those of the models established based on the LAI (R2 was 0.62 and RMSE was 448kg/hm2), aboveground biomass (R2 was 0.64 and RMSE was 431kg/hm2) and soil moisture (R2 was 0.67 and RMSE was 442kg/hm2) respectively. Therefore, the established comprehensive index fully integrated the advantages of the different variables in estimating crop yields, which can be used for estimating wheat yields accurately.

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解毅,王鵬新,張樹譽,李俐.基于粒子濾波和多變量權(quán)重的冬小麥估產(chǎn)研究[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機械學報,2017,48(10):148-155. XIE Yi, WANG Pengxin, ZHANG Shuyu, LI Li. Winter Wheat Yield Estimation Based on Particle Filter Algorithm and Weights of Multi-variables[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2017,48(10):148-155.

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  • 收稿日期:2016-12-28
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2017-10-10
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