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基于BRT_DC_Pd模型的土地利用模擬研究
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國家自然科學(xué)基金項目（41371189）和“十二五”國家科技支撐計劃項目（2012BAD16B00）


Simulation of Landuse Based on BRT_DC_Pd Model
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    摘要:

    通過對Dyna-CLUE模型進行改進,，嵌入BRT模型和Patch-dynamics模型,，形成BRT_Dyna-CLUE_Patch-dynamics模型,。以生態(tài)脆弱區(qū)典型縣域磴口縣為研究區(qū),，基于2006年磴口縣土地利用情況,，應(yīng)用BRT_Dyna-CLUE_Patch-dynamics模型,，對磴口縣2016年的土地利用狀況進行模擬預(yù)測,，并與目前應(yīng)用較多的Logistic_CA_Markov模型進行對比驗證,。結(jié)果表明,，Logistic_CA_Markov模型模擬結(jié)果的Kappa系數(shù)為0.7214,，BRT_Dyna-CLUE_Patch-dynamics模型模擬結(jié)果的Kappa系數(shù)為0.7826，2個組合模型的模擬結(jié)果精度較高,，均與真實解譯結(jié)果具有高度一致性,，但BRT_Dyna-CLUE_Patch-dynamics模型模擬精度更高，結(jié)果更優(yōu),。因此,，將BRT_Dyna-CLUE_Patch-dynamics模型應(yīng)用于當(dāng)?shù)赝恋乩米兓M預(yù)測,，具有一定可行性，可為當(dāng)?shù)厣鷳B(tài)治理以及相關(guān)政策的實施提供一定的參考,。

    Abstract:

    The BRT_Dyna-CLUE_Patch-dynamics model was formed by improving Dyna-CLUE model, by embedding BRT model and Patch-dynamics model. Based on the landuse situation in Dengkou County in 2006, a case study was conducted in Dengkou County, a typical county in the ecologically fragile region. The BRT_Dyna-CLUE_Patch-dynamics model was used to simulate the landuse situation in 2016 in Dengkou County and compared with the Logistic_CA_Markov model which was currently used more. The results showed that the Kappa coefficient of the Logistic_CA_Markov model was 0.7214, and the Kappa coefficient of the BRT_Dyna-CLUE_Patch-dynamics model was 0.7826. The simulation results of the two combinatorial models were highly accurate and both were highly consistent with the real interpretation results. BRT_Dyna-CLUE_Patch-dynamics model had high simulation accuracy and good result. Therefore, it is feasible to apply the BRT_Dyna-CLUE_Patch-dynamics model to the simulation and forecast of local landuse change in order to provide some reference for the implementation of local ecological control and related policies.

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王宇航,于強,岳德鵬,張啟斌,馬歡.基于BRT_DC_Pd模型的土地利用模擬研究[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機械學(xué)報,2018,49(3):225-234. WANG Yuhang, YU Qiang, YUE Depeng, ZHANG Qibin, MA Huan. Simulation of Landuse Based on BRT_DC_Pd Model[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2018,49(3):225-234.

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  • 收稿日期:2017-12-14
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2018-03-10
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