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基于云模型的西北地區(qū)輻射時(shí)空分布研究
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國(guó)家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(2016YFC0400206-03)、國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金面上項(xiàng)目(51779161),、“十二五”國(guó)家科技支撐計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(2015BAD24B01-01)和中央高?;究蒲袠I(yè)務(wù)費(fèi)專項(xiàng)資金項(xiàng)目(2016CDDY-S04-SCU,、2017XDLZ-N22)


Characteristics of Temporal-spatial Solar Radiation Distribution in Northwest China Based on Cloud Model
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    摘要:

    為研究西北地區(qū)輻射(Rs)時(shí)空分布特性,,基于西北地區(qū)16個(gè)輻射站點(diǎn)4個(gè)分區(qū)(Ⅰ區(qū),,新疆北部,、甘肅河西走廊中西段,、寧夏中北部、內(nèi)蒙古西部,;Ⅱ區(qū),,新疆南部;Ⅲ區(qū),,青海?。虎魠^(qū),,甘肅東南部,、寧夏南部、陜西關(guān)中地區(qū)與陜北地區(qū))1995—2015年實(shí)測(cè)日Rs與日照時(shí)數(shù)(n)率定?ngstr?m-Prescott(A-P)模型參數(shù)a,、b,,使用A-P模型4種不同參數(shù)率定方法(M1:分月率定,M2:分季率定,,M3:分半年率定,,M4:多年率定),選取其中精度高且簡(jiǎn)便的方法計(jì)算4個(gè)分區(qū)1961—2015年共55a的Rs,,并用云模型描述西北地區(qū)Rs時(shí)空分布特性,,結(jié)果表明:各分區(qū)4種方法計(jì)算的Rs值與實(shí)測(cè)值在日尺度和月尺度上擬合結(jié)果均較好。各分區(qū)4種方法計(jì)算Rs的RMSE,、nRMSE分布相似,,MBE略有差異,,t檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果表明Ⅰ區(qū)和Ⅲ區(qū)使用M1、M2,、M3計(jì)算的Rs值與實(shí)測(cè)值無(wú)明顯差異,,Ⅱ區(qū)使用M1,、M3計(jì)算的Rs值與實(shí)測(cè)值無(wú)明顯差異,,Ⅳ區(qū)使用M1、M2計(jì)算的Rs值與實(shí)測(cè)值無(wú)明顯差異,。Ⅰ區(qū)Rs時(shí)間分布的不均勻性較小但不穩(wěn)定,,Ⅱ區(qū)、Ⅲ區(qū)Rs時(shí)間分布的不均勻性較小且較穩(wěn)定,,Ⅳ區(qū)Rs時(shí)間分布的不均勻性較大且不穩(wěn)定,。西北地區(qū)Rs空間分布不均勻,4個(gè)季節(jié)均表現(xiàn)為Ⅲ區(qū)(青海?。㏑s較大,;與Rs在時(shí)間上的分布特性相比,其在空間上的分布特性更不均勻,、不穩(wěn)定,。該研究結(jié)果可用于構(gòu)建完整的西北地區(qū)Rs時(shí)間序列,為西北地區(qū)Rs時(shí)空變化研究提供科學(xué)參考,。

    Abstract:

    In order to study the temporal-spatial distribution of solar radiation (Rs) in Northwest China, daily Rs of 16 stations in Northwest China from 1961 to 2015 were calculated by ?ngstr?m-Prescott (A-P) model, and cloud model was used to describe the temporal-spatial distribution of Rs in Northwest China. To obtain the best parameters calibrated method and assess its adaptability, Northwest China was divided into four areas. Ⅰ area included northern Xinjiang, middle and west section of Hexi Corridor of Gansu, central and northern Ningxia, western Inner Mongolia. Ⅱ area included southern Xinjiang. Ⅲ area included Qinghai. Ⅳ area included southeast Gansu, southern Ningxia, Guanzhong and northern Shaanxi. Daily climatic data radiation (Rs) and sunshine hour (n) of 16 stations from 1995 to 2015 were used to calibrate A-P model parameters, and four different parameters calibrated methods for A-P model were used, including monthly (M1), seasonally (M2), bi-annualy (M3) and annually (M4), in which high precision and simple calculation method for each area was finally selected to calculate Rs. The results showed that the fitting results of four parameters calibrated methods conformed the measured values well both in daily and monthly scales. RMSE and nRMSE of four parameters calibrated methods changed little. The values of t statistic showed that there was no difference among the three methods (M1, M2 and M3) in use of data calculation in Ⅰ area and Ⅲ area, no difference between the two methods (M1 and M3) in use of data calculation in Ⅱ area, no difference between the two methods (M1 and M2) in use of data calculation in Ⅳ area. When cloud model was used to analyze the temporal-spatial distribution characteristics of Rs in Northwest China, as a consequence, there was good homogeneity but poor stability of Rs in Ⅰ area in the time. There was good homogeneity and stability of Rs in Ⅱ area and Ⅲ area in the time. There was poor homogeneity and stability of Rs in Ⅳ area in the time. Besides, spatial distribution of Rs in Northwest China was uneven. Rs of the four seasons in Ⅲ area (Qinghai Province) was larger than those of other areas. In general, the homogeneity and stability of Rs in the space was worse than that in the time. The results can be used to construct a complete Rs time series in Northwest China and provide a scientific reference for the study of temporal-spatial distribution characteristics of Rs in Northwest China.

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關(guān)靜,梁川,趙璐,崔寧博,王春懿,姜守政.基于云模型的西北地區(qū)輻射時(shí)空分布研究[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械學(xué)報(bào),2018,49(12):226-235. GUAN Jing, LIANG Chuan, ZHAO Lu, CUI Ningbo, WANG Chunyi, JIANG Shouzheng. Characteristics of Temporal-spatial Solar Radiation Distribution in Northwest China Based on Cloud Model[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2018,49(12):226-235.

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  • 收稿日期:2017-11-01
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2018-12-10
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