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基于MCR-ANN-CA模型的包頭市生態(tài)用地演變模擬
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國家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(41371189)和“十二五”國家科技支撐計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(2012BAD16B00)


Simulation of Ecological Land Transition in Baotou City Based on MCR-ANN-CA Model
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    摘要:

    以內(nèi)蒙古自治區(qū)包頭市為研究區(qū),,耦合最小累積阻力(MCR)模型,、人工神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)(ANN)和元胞自動(dòng)機(jī)(CA)構(gòu)建MCR-ANN-CA模型。利用MCR模型量化包頭市各用地類型演變?yōu)樯鷳B(tài)用地時(shí)的阻力,,構(gòu)建CA適宜性規(guī)則,;利用ANN模型提取CA鄰域轉(zhuǎn)換規(guī)則,基于包頭市2006,、2011年土地利用數(shù)據(jù)及歸一化植被指數(shù)(NDVI),、高程、坡度、水體距離,、人口密度多項(xiàng)數(shù)據(jù),,對(duì)2016年生態(tài)用地演變情景進(jìn)行模擬,以2016年實(shí)際生態(tài)用地分布為參照,,將該模型模擬結(jié)果與CA-Markov模型的模擬結(jié)果進(jìn)行對(duì)比(以2016年實(shí)際景觀分布為參照),,結(jié)果顯示,兩種模型模擬結(jié)果的卡帕一致性指數(shù)(Kappa index of agreement,,KIA)分別為0.89和0.87,,相對(duì)誤差分別為3.10%和5.31%,MCR-ANN-CA模型顯示了較高的模擬精度,。

    Abstract:

    To simulate the ecological land transition of Baotou City, Inner Mongolia, the MCR-ANN-CA model was built. This model was composed of minimum cumulative resistance model (MCR), artificial neural network (ANN) and cellular automata model (CA). The MCR model was used to simulate the resistance faced by ecological land during its transition. To measure the resistance, the data of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), digital elevation model (DEM), slope, distance from water, population density and industrial park distribution were normalized and superimposed to produce the resistance surface of MCR model. Then a cumulative consumption resistance surface was generated by using the cost distance tool of ArcGIS software. The generated surface was taken as the suitability map of CA model. The ANN model was used to extract CA neighborhood transfer rules and consider the neighborhood land use structure. The CA model combined the cumulative consumption resistance surface and the neighborhood transfer rules extracted by using the CNN model. And the MCR-CNN-CA model was finally formed. Based on the land use data of 2006 and 2011, the transition of construction land of Baotou City in 2016 was simulated by using the MCR-ANN-CA model. The simulation result of the model was compared with the CA-Markov model. The Kappa index of agreement (KIA) of the two models were 0.89 and 0.87, and the relative errors were 3.10% and 5.31%, respectively. The MCR-ANN-CA model showed high simulation precision.

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劉建華,張啟斌,YANG Di,岳德鵬,于強(qiáng),楊斕.基于MCR-ANN-CA模型的包頭市生態(tài)用地演變模擬[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械學(xué)報(bào),2019,50(2):187-194. LIU Jianhua, ZHANG Qibin, YANG Di, YUE Depeng, YU Qiang, YANG Lan. Simulation of Ecological Land Transition in Baotou City Based on MCR-ANN-CA Model[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2019,50(2):187-194.

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  • 收稿日期:2018-11-19
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2019-02-10
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