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基于區(qū)間兩階段魯棒優(yōu)化模型的灌區(qū)水資源優(yōu)化配置
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黑龍江省自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(LC2015015)和哈爾濱市應(yīng)用技術(shù)研究與開發(fā)(青年后備人才)項(xiàng)目(2014RFQXJ122)


Optimal Water Resources Planning Based on Intervalparameter Twostage Robust Stochastic Programming Model
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    摘要:

    為避免由灌區(qū)水資源配置系統(tǒng)存在的諸多不確定因素導(dǎo)致的配水過(guò)程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性,,在區(qū)間兩階段隨機(jī)規(guī)劃方法的基礎(chǔ)上加入了魯棒優(yōu)化方法,構(gòu)建區(qū)間兩階段魯棒優(yōu)化模型,,引入魯棒系數(shù)表示系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),,將系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)體現(xiàn)在模型中,克服了系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)不可控的不足,。以三江平原牡丹江灌區(qū)為例,,對(duì)灌區(qū)水資源進(jìn)行優(yōu)化配置,得到灌區(qū)多水源,、多作物,、不同魯棒系數(shù)下的配水目標(biāo)。結(jié)果表明:隨著魯棒系數(shù)增大,,導(dǎo)致缺水量增加,系統(tǒng)穩(wěn)定性增強(qiáng),,但成本也隨之增加,,系統(tǒng)經(jīng)濟(jì)性降低;當(dāng)魯棒系數(shù)為3時(shí),,缺水量不再增加,,系統(tǒng)達(dá)到穩(wěn)定的狀態(tài),此時(shí)系統(tǒng)的成本在[1.90327×109,2.63475×109]元之間變化,。優(yōu)化結(jié)果可為決策者提供決策空間,,為農(nóng)業(yè)水資源的合理配置提供技術(shù)支持。

    Abstract:

    The intervalparameter twostage robust stochastic programming model (ITRM) was put forward for supporting optimization and management of water resources in Mudanjiang Irrigation District, Sanjiang Plain, which was in such a situation, with multiwater source, multicrop and multirobustness coefficient. The ITRM incorporated intervalparameter programming (IPP) and twostage stochastic programming (TSP) with a robust optimization framework to deal with uncertainties. Compared with the traditional TSP, ITRM can overcome the deficiency of uncontrollable risk in system. The robustness coefficient was introduced to represent the system risk, which was effectively reflected in the model. Let the robust coefficient be 0, 0.4, 1, 2,,3 and 5, respectively. With the increase of robust coefficient, the feasibility of the model and the stability of the system were enhanced. It was a sufficient and effective balance between system cost and risk when the robustness coefficient was 3. A more stable allocation of water resources was generated and the system cost was between 1.90327×109 RMB and 2.63475×109 RMB. Based on this model, a series of scenarios under different levels of preallocation water was done and different degrees of water surplus and shortage were obtained correspondingly. All these results were valuable for watersaving irrigation agriculture and improving water use efficiency and economic value, and thus it provided a technical support for decision maker in reasonable allocation of agricultural water resources.

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陳紅光,王瓊雅,李曉寧,王中君,李晨陽(yáng).基于區(qū)間兩階段魯棒優(yōu)化模型的灌區(qū)水資源優(yōu)化配置[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械學(xué)報(bào),2019,50(3):271-280. CHEN Hongguang, WANG Qiongya, LI Xiaoning, WANG Zhongjun, LI Chenyang. Optimal Water Resources Planning Based on Intervalparameter Twostage Robust Stochastic Programming Model[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2019,50(3):271-280.

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  • 收稿日期:2018-10-15
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2019-03-10
  • 出版日期: 2019-03-10
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