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基于EnKF和隨機(jī)森林回歸的玉米單產(chǎn)估測(cè)
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國家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(2016YFD030060303-3)


Estimation of Maize Yield Based on Ensemble Kalman Filter and Random Forest for Regression
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    摘要:

    為了提高玉米的估產(chǎn)精度,,以河北省中部平原為研究區(qū)域,,采用CERES-Maize模型模擬2013—2018年8個(gè)典型樣點(diǎn)玉米整個(gè)生育期的葉面積指數(shù)(LAI),將遙感反演的LAI與CERES-Maize模型模擬的LAI相結(jié)合,,通過集合卡爾曼濾波(EnKF)同化算法實(shí)現(xiàn)2013—2018年玉米主要生育時(shí)期旬尺度LAI的同化,,運(yùn)用隨機(jī)森林回歸法計(jì)算同化和未同化的LAI權(quán)重,進(jìn)而建立玉米單產(chǎn)估測(cè)模型,,對(duì)2015年53個(gè)縣(區(qū))的玉米進(jìn)行單產(chǎn)估測(cè)和精度評(píng)價(jià),,并分析2013—2018年玉米的單產(chǎn)時(shí)空分布特征。結(jié)果表明,,采用EnKF算法對(duì)8個(gè)研究樣點(diǎn)進(jìn)行單點(diǎn)同化,,同化LAI更符合玉米實(shí)際生長情況;將樣點(diǎn)LAI同化值從單點(diǎn)尺度擴(kuò)展到區(qū)域尺度,,同化LAI圖像減少了相鄰像素間LAI陡升陡降的現(xiàn)象,,其效果優(yōu)于遙感反演的LAI;與未同化LAI構(gòu)建的估測(cè)模型相比,,應(yīng)用同化的LAI所建的估測(cè)模型精度明顯提高,,R2提高了0.0245;在2015年河北中部平原53個(gè)縣(區(qū))估產(chǎn)結(jié)果中,,總體平均相對(duì)誤差為12.11%,,RMSE為371kg/hm2,,NRMSE為6.18%;河北中部平原玉米單產(chǎn)估測(cè)結(jié)果呈現(xiàn)個(gè)別年份波動(dòng),、總體呈先減少后增加的年際變化特點(diǎn),,并呈現(xiàn)西部地區(qū)最高、北部和南部地區(qū)次之,、東部地區(qū)最低的空間分布特征,。

    Abstract:

    In order to improve the estimation accuracy of maize, the central plain of Hebei Province was chosen as research area, and the remote sensed LAI and simulated LAI by CERES-Maize model was combined in eight typical samples from 2013 to 2018 by using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation approach. The random forest regression was used to estimate maize yield by using monitored LAI and the assimilated ones respectively. The optimal model for estimating maize yields in study area from 2013 to 2018 was selected, and the measured maize yield of the year 2015 was used to validate the accuracy of the optimal model. The results showed that the single point assimilation of eight samples using the EnKF algorithm was more consistent with the actual growth of maize. The assimilated LAIs were extended from the sampling sites to the regional scale, the phenomenon of LAIs rising and falling between adjacent pixels was reduced and the effect was better than the remote sensing inversion LAIs. Compared the yield estimation models with the monitored LAIs, the accuracy of the yield estimation models with the assimilated LAIs was improved, and the R2 was increased by 0.0245. The yield estimation model was applied to estimate maize yield in 53 counties (districts), in general, the average relative error of the estimated yield was 12.11%, and the root mean square error was 371kg/hm2, the normalized root mean square error was 6.18%. The yearly estimated yield from 2013 to 2018 in the central plain of Hebei Province was fluctuated in individual years, and the overall distribution in time was characterized by a tendency to decrease first and then increase, and the spatial distribution of maize yield was the highest in the western region of the plain, following by the north and south regions, and the lowest was in the eastern region.

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王鵬新,胡亞京,李俐,許連香.基于EnKF和隨機(jī)森林回歸的玉米單產(chǎn)估測(cè)[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械學(xué)報(bào),2020,51(9):135-143. WANG Pengxin, HU Yajing, LI Li, XU Lianxiang. Estimation of Maize Yield Based on Ensemble Kalman Filter and Random Forest for Regression[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2020,51(9):135-143.

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  • 收稿日期:2019-12-10
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2020-09-10
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