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不確定性條件下分布式農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)預(yù)警模型構(gòu)建與應(yīng)用
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國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目（42041007）和黃河水利科學(xué)研究院科技發(fā)展基金項(xiàng)目（黃科發(fā)202209）


istributed Agricultural Production Warning Model Formulation and Application under Uncertainties
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    摘要:

    構(gòu)建了基于梯形模糊數(shù)和分布式作物模擬模型的空間分布式農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)預(yù)警模型來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)作物產(chǎn)量和水分生產(chǎn)力綜合警情預(yù)警預(yù)報(bào),。模型采用空間分布式作物產(chǎn)量和水分生產(chǎn)力作為警情指標(biāo)來(lái)計(jì)算系統(tǒng)警級(jí)，引入梯形模糊數(shù)來(lái)表征目標(biāo)產(chǎn)量和水分生產(chǎn)力的不確定性,，采用空間分布式作物模擬模型來(lái)模擬常規(guī)灌溉,、0.8倍常規(guī)灌溉和0.6倍常規(guī)灌溉下的作物產(chǎn)量和水分生產(chǎn)力，進(jìn)而對(duì)現(xiàn)狀1976—2012年和未來(lái)RCP4.5情景下2026—2045年不同灌溉水平下進(jìn)行農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)報(bào)預(yù)警,，并衡量了未來(lái)20年產(chǎn)量和水分生產(chǎn)力的靜態(tài)協(xié)調(diào)度和每5年4個(gè)周期的動(dòng)態(tài)協(xié)調(diào)度。結(jié)果表明,，同一作物在不同土壤類型和不同灌溉水平下預(yù)警等級(jí)不同,，警級(jí)隨著灌溉水平的降低呈現(xiàn)不規(guī)則變化規(guī)律，協(xié)調(diào)性隨著灌溉水平的降低而減小,。模型能夠識(shí)別出未來(lái)氣候變化不同節(jié)水灌溉水平下的空間異質(zhì)性作物產(chǎn)量和水分生產(chǎn)力的警級(jí),，實(shí)現(xiàn)精準(zhǔn)化農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警預(yù)報(bào)，有利于實(shí)現(xiàn)高效率降警處理,。

    Abstract:

    A trapezoidal fuzzy numbers and distributed crop simulation model was developed based on distributed agricultural production warning model. The model selected spatially-distributed crop yield and water productivity as warning indictors to calculate system’s warning levels. Besides, it introduced trapezoidal fuzzy numbers to express uncertainties of crop yield target and water productivity target. Moreover, the crop yield and water productivity between 1976 to 2021 and between future year 2026 to 2045 under RCP4.5 scenario under normal irrigation, 0.8 times and 0.6 times as normal irrigation were simulated based on distributed AquaCrop model. Additionally, the static and dynamic coordinated degrees between crop yield and water productivity for future 20 years were calculated. The results showed that warning level of one crop with different soil types and irrigation levels was different. And warning levels presented irregular changes with decrease of irrigation level while coordinated level lessened with decrease of irrigation level. The model could identify warning levels of spatially-distributed crop yield and water productivity under different irrigation levels and realize the precise warning forecast, which were beneficial to reach reductions of agricultural production risks quickly.

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王友芝,李強(qiáng)坤,韓金旭,張翔宇,殷會(huì)娟.不確定性條件下分布式農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)預(yù)警模型構(gòu)建與應(yīng)用[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械學(xué)報(bào),2023,54(5):316-323. WANG Youzhi, LI Qiangkun, HAN Jinxu, ZHANG Xiangyu, YIN Huijuan. istributed Agricultural Production Warning Model Formulation and Application under Uncertainties[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2023,54(5):316-323.

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  • 收稿日期:2022-08-22
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2023-05-10
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