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灌區(qū)用水優(yōu)化模型參數(shù)全局敏感性分析與不確定性優(yōu)化
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國家自然科學(xué)基金項目(51909003,、52269012、52209058)


Global Sensitivity Analysis of Parameters for Irrigation Water Optimization Model and Uncertainty Optimization
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    摘要:

    灌區(qū)水資源優(yōu)化配置中存在眾多不確定性因素,,而考慮不確定性因素的優(yōu)化模型往往存在結(jié)構(gòu)復(fù)雜,、不確定性參數(shù)考慮有限、計算精度和效率較低等問題,。本文將LH-OAT(Latin hypercube-One factor at a time)方法與灌區(qū)用水優(yōu)化模型耦合,,構(gòu)建了灌區(qū)用水優(yōu)化模型參數(shù)敏感性分析與不確定性優(yōu)化方法,并以黑河流域中游典型灌區(qū)為案例研究區(qū),,對模型中6類共25個不確定性參數(shù)進行了全局敏感性分析,。計算獲得了模型中25個不確定性參數(shù)的敏感度排序,并從中篩選出10個高敏感性參數(shù),,以高敏感性參數(shù)作為優(yōu)化模型不確定性參數(shù)輸入,,獲得了不確定性下的灌區(qū)用水優(yōu)化結(jié)果。案例分析表明,,該方法有效篩選出優(yōu)化模型中高敏感的關(guān)鍵參數(shù),,綜合考慮了不確定性參數(shù)對模型優(yōu)化結(jié)果的影響,大大減少了模型不確定性參數(shù)的表征數(shù)量,,降低了模型復(fù)雜性,,有效提高了模型計算效率,可為灌區(qū)水資源優(yōu)化配置問題提供方法參考,。

    Abstract:

    There are many uncertain factors in the optimal allocation of water resources in irrigated areas, while the optimization models considering the uncertainties are often faced with the problems of complex structure, limited uncertain parameters, low calculation accuracy and efficiency. Therefore, a method for parameter sensitivity analysis of irrigation water optimization model as well as uncertainty optimization was developed through coupling the Latin hypercube-One factor at a time (LH-OAT) method with an irrigation water optimization model. Taking a typical irrigation district in the middle reaches of the Heihe River basin as the case study area, the sensitivity analysis method was conducted for 25 uncertainty parameters from six categories parameters of the model, and the uncertainty optimization of irrigation water use was then realized based on the highly sensitive parameters. The sensitivity ranking of 25 uncertainty parameters in the model was calculated, and 10 highly sensitive parameters were selected. Taking the highly sensitive parameters as uncertainty parameters input for the optimization model, the optimized results of irrigation water use under uncertainty were obtained. The case study indicated that the developed method can effectively find the highly sensitive key parameters in the optimization model, and can comprehensively consider the impact of uncertainty parameters on the optimization results. The method can greatly reduce the number of uncertainty parameters to be considered in an optimization model, which reduced the model complexity and effectively improved the efficiency and accuracy of the model. The study can provide important scientific reference and practical methods for the optimal allocation of water resources in irrigated areas.

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姜瑤,顏澤文,黎良輝,閆峰,熊呂陽.灌區(qū)用水優(yōu)化模型參數(shù)全局敏感性分析與不確定性優(yōu)化[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機械學(xué)報,2023,54(7):372-380. JIANG Yao, YAN Zewen, LI Lianghui, YAN Feng, XIONG Lüyang. Global Sensitivity Analysis of Parameters for Irrigation Water Optimization Model and Uncertainty Optimization[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2023,54(7):372-380.

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  • 收稿日期:2022-11-21
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2023-07-10
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